Malaria: when mathematics is involved in the fight against disease

CERFIG, the WAMCAD project and the international AMMnet network brought together at the end of July 2026, in Conakry then in Maferinyah, mathematicians, researchers and public health executives around the same objective: putting equations at the service of the fight against malaria.

How can we know, even before implementing them, whether a mosquito net distribution campaign or a new screening strategy will really reduce malaria? This is the question that mathematical modeling attempts to answer, a discipline still little known to the general public but increasingly used by public health researchers. By translating the spread of a disease into equations, it makes it possible to simulate scenarios, anticipate the evolution of an epidemic and guide decisions even before taking action on the ground.

It is around this tool that, at the end of July 2026, the Guinea Research and Training Center in Infectiology (CERFIG), the WAMCAD (West African Center for Applied Malaria Dynamics) project and the international network AMMnet (Applied Malaria Modeling Network), through two highlights: a meeting at the Gamal Abdel Nasser University of Conakry (UGANC), then a three-day training workshop in Maferinyah.

First meeting: UGANC mathematicians discover malaria

On July 24, students and teacher-researchers from the West African Institute of Mathematics (IOAM), attached to UGANC, participated in an initiation meeting organized on their own campus. Objective: show them how their discipline can directly contribute to public health. Professor Alioune Camara opened the meeting by recalling “the importance of building bridges between mathematics and the fight against infectious diseases », before presenting the WAMCAD project. Mr. Abdoulaye Bangoura and Dr. Ibrahima Kaba then took over to introduce the AMMnet network, its training, its webinars and its opportunities for scientific collaboration.

Dr Alpha Oumar Bah led the main session: an introduction to the basic principles of modeling applied to malaria, illustrated with concrete examples. For mathematicians accustomed to abstract equations, seeing their discipline deployed directly on a Guinean public health issue aroused keen interest, confirmed by a lively question-and-answer session which closed the day.

In Maferinyah, three days to learn modeling tools

A few days later, from July 27 to 29, CERFIG and its partners organized a more in-depth workshop at the National Center for Research and Training in Rural Health (CNRSR) in Maferinyah, in the prefecture of Forécariah. This time, the target audience was broader: Ministry of Health executives, decentralized health officials, researchers, academics and students, i.e. 19 participants in total, supervised by five facilitators.

The training was built in three stages. The first day provided an opportunity to present the WAMCAD project and the AMMnet network, before an introduction to the R/RStudio software, a free IT tool widely used to process and visualize health data.

“The value of data lies not only in its collection, but above all in its use to guide decisions and improve interventions. »

This sentence, uttered by a participant during the discussions, sums up the entire issue of the workshop.

The second day allowed us to deepen the practice of R/RStudio, before two scientific presentations: Dr. Abdourahmane Diallo showed, through modeling, how to predict the impact of future antimalaria interventions in Guinea, while Dr. Marouf Diallo presented a study evaluating the effect of selective free care and differentiated diagnosis on the burden of malaria in the country, a concrete demonstration of the capacity of models to inform health policy choices.

The last day, led by Dr Alpha Oumar Bah, was devoted to an introduction to mathematical modeling itself. Participants discovered the “compartmental models”, which consist of dividing a population into several groups, susceptible, exposed, infectious, cured, vaccinated or quarantined individuals; then mathematically model how people move from one group to another over time. Gathered in small groups, the participants constructed their own models themselves, before presenting them and discussing them collectively. A model says “SIR” (Sensible-Infectious-Cured), one of the most used in epidemiology, was then presented to them in RStudio, concretizing the concepts discussed throughout the day.

A scientific community under construction

Beyond the technical skills acquired, the two meetings above all made it possible to bring together worlds that rarely intersect: mathematicians, epidemiologists, public health executives and researchers. The discussions highlighted a real need for coordination, in particular with the National Directorate of Epidemiology and Disease Control (DNELM), and a shared desire to continue this training, by deepening them and relocating them within the country.

Participants were invited to join the AMMnet network, which offers training, mentoring and scientific collaborations on an international scale. A way for Guinea to gradually acquire national expertise in mathematical modeling, a discreet but increasingly strategic tool to better understand epidemics and, above all, better combat them.

Beyond the technical knowledge acquired in R/RStudio and mathematical modeling, the workshop promoted dialogue between the different actors in the health system and opened new perspectives for collaboration in terms of research and training. It also highlighted the potential of modeling as a strategic tool to support the planning, monitoring and evaluation of interventions to combat malaria and other priority diseases in Guinea.